LAS VEGAS — En route to Matt Eberflus finally receiving a pink slip Nov. 29, the profit margin on when the woebegone Bears coach would get the sack waxed and waned.
Offshore markets dangled odds to lure those who traffic in such unflinching savagery, who delight in the downfall of others, who relish profiting in such Schadenfreude.
Then again, wagering on sports is a cutthroat, cruel and merciless affair, so partaking in such bets can be justified via the fattening of the wallet.
Which began in the summer, as BetOnLine had the Jets’ Robert Saleh at +500 (or risk $100 to win $500) to be canned first, the Cowboys’ Mike McCarthy +600 and Eberflus at +700, with Dennis Allen of the Saints.
Bookies.com and Bovada also supplied such odds.
Three weeks into the season, the Bears were 1-2 (but about to win three games in a row). At that point, Jacksonville’s Doug Pederson was the +135 favorite, then McCarthy (+450), Brian Daboll (Giants, +800) and Zac Taylor (Bengals, +900).
With the triumphs, Eberflus had ballooned to 10-1; Allen, Kevin Stefanski (Browns) and Nick Sirianni (Eagles) were knotted at 14-1.
Saleh could have been had at 25-1 by smart shoppers, which would have delivered big dividends. He was the first to get the boot, on Oct. 8.
The Jets won two of their first three games before dropping two in a row, leading to Saleh’s axing amidst the loathsome, never-ending, off-Broadway drama that is The Aaron Rodgers Saga.
Turkey day debacle
At Circa Sports, believe it or not, Eberflus had been the +950 preseason favorite to win Associated Press coach-of-the-year honors, followed by Mike Macdonald (Seahawks, 10-1) and Jim Harbaugh (Chargers, 11-1).
At the Westgate SuperBook, Eberflus and the Texans’ DeMeco Ryans were 14-1 for that award, behind only Harbaugh (10-1) and -Raheem Morris (Falcons, 12-1).
So Eberflus would plummet from the penthouse to the outhouse. It just took awhile. After their seventh consecutive loss in Week 9, the Saints cut ties with Allen, delivering a 14-1 offshore payoff.
Two gone. Eberflus still had his gig.
Even then, at Bookies.com, Pederson was the +175 favorite, followed by Daboll (+300), Stefanski (+350) and Eberflus (+450).
The losses piled up. Eberflus remained steady at +450. Until the Thanksgiving Day Debacle in Detroit, a meltdown for the ages in the final 30 seconds. Another one-score loss. The heat turned way up that night.
And even then, a positive figure on Eberflus being bounced next could have been secured. One offshore shop had +122 odds on his imminent sacking for several hours. Finally, it happened.
For the first time in their illustrious history, the Bears dumped a head coach during a season.
Chicago native Sam Panayotovich, of BetMGM’s “BetQLDaily,” called the Bears “idiots” for not snatching Harbaugh last offseason, as did Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN) senior broadcaster/scribe Matt Youmans.
“But [Bears general manager Ryan] Poles wanted all the power,” Youmans told me, which might trump them yielding such reins to [Browns consultant] Mike Vrabel, too.
Sammy P, Youmans and others peg the Bears as coveting Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to groom second-year quarterback Caleb Williams.
Moreover, Panayotovich never dabbled with those “Next NFL Coach to get Fired” propositions.
“I did not,” he said. “I also didn’t take the 10-1 on him winning coach of the year, either.”
Pros don’t bother
On Long Island, professional bettor and lifelong Bears fan Tom Barton was stunned that the team made such a noteworthy in-season move.
He said, “I’m glad but shocked.”
Barton doesn’t believe the Bears will be able to get Johnson, so he favors Bill Beli-chick or, like DraftKings race and sports director Johnny Avello, Vrabel.
Youmans didn’t partake in any Eberflus-getting-sacked bets, either, and said that’s a carnival plaything for commoners, not sharps.
“Low wagering limits,” Youmans said. “Pros are not bothering with it. It’s a talking point for the media.”
The negativity of the prop is what concerned Avello, whose DraftKings is licensed to conduct business in Illinois and 24 other states.
“The ‘Next To Get Fired’ prop is nothing DraftKings will get involved with,” he said. “We try not to get into the negative part of it. We might get into ‘Where Will [Juan] Soto Land Next’ or ‘Where Will Belichick Coach Next?’
“But not ‘Next Coach Fired.’ Some jurisdictions don’t want you to put up negative stuff, and that’s negative.”
Based in Las Vegas, the veteran oddsman said such a prop would not be approved by the Nevada Gaming Commission.
The “Next Coach Fired” prop is largely the domain of offshore sites, according to Dave Sharapan, a veteran who has worked at a book in the Caribbean and many in downtown Las Vegas and along the Strip.
Like death pools
“We never put it up in Vegas,” he said. “I can make the numbers for it. And I understand why books would put it up; people will bet it. But it’s like death pools, for me.
“It’s a bit morbid to bet on that stuff. Rooting for someone to lose their job just ain’t in my DNA.”
These days, Sharapan is half of the popular Bostonian vs. The Bookie podcast, with Matt Perrault. And as a Steelers fan, Sharapan knows he’s spoiled.
“As a guy from Pittsburgh, with three NFL coaches in my 54 years of life,” Sharapan said, “coaches being fired never interested me!”