As if it wasn’t bad enough for Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams to watch Jayden Daniels, picked second by the Commanders after Williams went No. 1, outshine him in his hometown as he leads the Commanders toward the playoffs and sprints away with Offensive Rookie of the Year, the other first-round picks have delivered some gut punches along the way.
Patriots quarterback and Williams’ longtime pal Drake Maye, the third pick, came to Soldier Field last month and walked away with a 19-3 win in which he outplayed Williams.
The Broncos’ Bo Nix, a former Pac-12 rival, was the last first-round quarterback at No. 12, and he’s made more progress than Williams as he leads the rookies with 20 touchdown passes.
Nix and Daniels have opportunities to clinch playoff spots this week, while Williams will have to watch them on TV next month as he waits for a new coach amid a major reset that probably will include substantial roster overhauling.
And two of the first-round picks haven’t even gotten going yet. The Falcons’ Michael Penix (No. 8 overall) and Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy (No. 10) likely will enter the race next season.
There has been good and bad in Williams’ rookie season, and Bears general manager Ryan Poles owes some explanations for a poor coaching staff and offensive line, but the hard truth is that he wasn’t as NFL-ready as he or most others thought.
Daniels not only leads the rookies with a 101.2 passer rating and 70.5 completion percentage this season, but he’s top-10 in the NFL in both. Williams is third in his class with an 87.7 passer rating, fourth in completion percentage (61.9) and tied for second with Daniels with 17 touchdown passes despite walking onto a more talented roster than any of the other rookies.
Williams has thrown the fewest interceptions at five and is third in the league with picks on just 1.1% of his passes, but that’s partly due to an overly conservative approach. In the 30-12 loss to the Vikings on Monday, he threw deeper than five yards past the line of scrimmage just once in the first half before opening it up somewhat in the second.
Williams described his rookie season as “frustrating and encouraging” after the game, with the bothersome part including his poor play at times, the team’s eight-game losing streak and 4-10 record and the November firings of coach Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.
It’s a long game, and Williams will get at least three seasons to prove himself, but the story of this season has been written. The Bears’ remaining games are more of an epilogue than anything else, and everything has deteriorated so badly that they can’t even be certain these will be a helpful lead-in to next season.
While Williams has shown more potential than previous Bears first-round picks Justin Fields and Mitch Trubisky, he didn’t look much better against the Vikings than he did in Week 2 against the Texans.
Williams completed 18 of 31 passes for 191 yards and a meaningless late touchdown for an 86.9 passer rating. The offense went 1 for 12 on third downs and didn’t score until a field goal halfway through the third quarter — a thudding disappointment after having first-and-goal at the 1-yard line.
That calls into question how much he has actually developed and whether the incoming coach will essentially have him start from scratch. Williams has seen a lot, playing 936 snaps and dropping back 523 times, but has that made him any better?
Indecision is still an issue, and that’s the biggest concern. Every rookie quarterback walks in with talent — Williams more than most, perhaps — but the ones who solve the ever-changing puzzle of NFL defensive schemes are the ones who flourish.
Williams missed open receivers Monday, as ESPN broadcaster and Hall of Fame quarterback Troy Aikman illustrated, and waiting too long in the pocket also is part of the equation on his league-high 58 sacks.
“He’s slow to anticipate, slow to react, and that’s the difference between punting the football or picking up a first down,” Aikman said after Williams didn’t throw to an open Rome Odunze on a third-and-four.
Williams said afterward he had some bruises and was fatigued, and he looked like it on the sideline. Aikman said, “You can tell he’s a defeated guy… what you worry about is a rookie quarterback losing confidence.” Williams would dispute that, but he looked and sounded flatter than usual after the game.
He’s picking up the pieces, trying to sort out how he ended up here and what to do about it. And meanwhile, two of his peers are looking eagerly toward the playoffs.