With four games left to play, the Sun-Times’ Bears experts — Patrick Finley, Jason Lieser and Mark Potash — analyze the Bears’ tumultuous season and where the franchise goes from here:
The Bears’ decision to fire Matt Eberflus was …
FINLEY: Deserved. But if quarterback Caleb Williams continues to struggle the way he did in San Francisco, it’s fair to wonder why the team insisted on having Thomas Brown run the team when he was just getting the hang of running the offense.
LIESER: Something that never should have been necessary, because he clearly was a shaky hire to begin with. They needed an offensive minded coach, just like they do now. Also, the Bears bungled the process by interviewing coaches without a general manager in place, and it sure seemed like they’d settled on finalists before general manager Ryan Poles arrived. And even then, Dan Quinn was a far more qualified and appealing choice.
POTASH: Inevitable. The red flags and indicators of Eberflus’ flaws as a head coach were all too clear and mounting quickly — his ill-fated hiring of Shane Waldron over Kliff Kingsbury among others; the Tyrique Stevenson incident and Eberflus’ handling of it; the Hail Mary itself; the clock-management fiasco; and most of all, the team’s poor response to adversity made the decision an easy one.
Is the Bears’ vacancy the NFL’s best?
FINLEY: It’s better than the Jets and Saints, whose quarterbacks have a combined $100 million in dead salary cap hits owed to them were they cut this offseason. Ask me again after “Black Monday.” The Cowboys job will be better when it opens up. The Giants might be. The Jaguars have Trevor Lawrence and the Raiders might have the No. 1 overall pick.
LIESER: Yes, because of Williams. Regardless of all the other hang-ups about the Bears, the opportunity to coach a talented quarterback on his rookie contract is going to make this job highly coveted.
POTASH: No. Another disappointing season has exposed the dysfunction of Halas Hall that starts at the top. With the Bears history of failure from the GMs to the head coaches to coordinators, coaching candidates who are coveted by other teams are likely to be making sure the Bears are the right fit for them as much or more than the Bears are making sure he is the right fit for them.
Who should be the next head coach?
FINLEY: Mike Vrabel is the most stable choice available. The Bears, however, need to hire a head coach who calls offensive plays, and he doesn’t do that. Lions coordinator Ben Johnson will be the prize of the offseason coaching carousel. He’s been picky the last two hiring cycles, so Johnson will be interviewing the Bears, and vice versa. One concern I have is the Lions’ indoor/outdoor splits this year — Jared Goff has a 116.1 passer rating in domes and a 65.5 outside of them.
LIESER: Kingsbury. The Bears must get the best coach available and should have a shot at Johnson, Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores and all other top candidates. The Commanders offensive coordinator has experience as a head coach, is familiar with Williams from their time together at USC and immediately ignited his own offense with a rookie quarterback this season.
POTASH: The most proven offensive coach available would be the safest choice, because it at least aligns the coach with Williams. But maybe Flores — a retread who was curiously fired after two winning seasons with the Dolphins, and is suing the NFL. The Bears aren’t likely to be comfortable with that, and at this point hiring the guy who makes them uncomfortable and is not like them could be what the Bears need.
What was Ryan Poles’ biggest mistake?
FINLEY: Not firing Eberflus in the offseason to align the timelines of Williams and his head coach. Instead, the Bears are teaming their first-round quarterback with a new coach in Year 2, the same thing they did to Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields. And we all saw how that turned out.
LIESER: Horribly misjudging his offensive line. Poles thought he had at least a league-average line with tremendous depth. Not at all. If he can, he should open next season with new starters in four of the five spots.
POTASH: Believing in his offensive line. Poles was fixated on getting weapons for his quarterback — whether it was Fields or Williams. And while acquiring skill-position players was cheered — like drafting Rome Odunze at No. 9 even after trading for Keenan Allen — Poles’ faith in linemen other than 2023 No. 10 overall pick Darnell Wright has not been rewarded.
Have your expectations for Caleb Williams changed?
FINLEY: I worry that the sacks he’s taken and the points he’s been asked to chase have taught Williams some bad habits. I’m concerned he has to learn a new playbook next year. But Williams has still been productive by rookie quarterback standards. He’s one of five first-year players ever to have a passer rating over 87, at least 15 passing touchdowns and five or fewer interceptions. The others: C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott, Robert Griffin III and Otto Graham.
LIESER: Not for 2025. Williams wasn’t as pro-ready as he and everyone else thought, but he has developed in spite of offensive line trouble, disastrous coaching and other Bears malfunctions. He’s a good bet for a big Year 2 once he gets an offseason to regroup and is paired with a better coach.
POTASH: No. Any quarterback who steps into Halas Hall comes with inherent doubt — even a No. 1 overall pick with Williams’ credentials. Williams has extraordinary skills to be an elite quarterback in the NFL, but has yet to display the “it” factor that tilts the field the Bears’ way and makes overachievers of those around him. He’s better than Fields, but still needs a lot around him to be all he can be.
What has been the Bears’ biggest disappointment?
FINLEY: That president/CEO Kevin Warren still hasn’t found a stadium site or a way to finance new construction. Coaches come and go — especially at Halas Hall, where the Bears will be hiring their fifth in 12 years — but a new stadium would be one of the most significant developments in Bears history. The clock is ticking.
LIESER: There are more choices for this question than there are in a Cheesecake Factory menu, but running back D’Andre Swift stands out. While it’s not entirely on him given the faulty offensive line and coaching, there was a good chance going into the season Swift would be the best weapon in this offense. He has had some big plays, but hasn’t given the Bears the consistent production they need.
POTASH: That the hires of Poles and Warren haven’t altered the dysfunction at Halas Hall. The Bears still don’t manage crisis well and still struggle to hire the right people. That does not bode well for a franchise that again is in the process of change.
Will the Bears win another game?
FINLEY: One — against the Seahawks on Dec. 26, because the wrong team has a way of winning Thursday night games.
LIESER: Probably not, which would land them at 4-13. Last season, that record got the Commanders the No. 2 pick. If the Bears win any game, it likely would be the finale against the Packers, but only if coach Matt LaFleur sits his starters ahead of the playoffs.
POTASH: Even in the midst of a seven-game losing streak during which they fired Waldron and Eberflus, the Bears lost to the Lions, Packers and Vikings by a combined seven points. So they’re capable. But at this point, the Bears need more than a win to restore faith they are headed in the right direction.